Why are intra-Asia rates falling when the Drewry index is up 198% year-on-year?

Rates are declining from recent cyclical peaks due to port congestion easing and subdued demand across key trade lanes. The 198% year-on-year gain reflects structural inflation throughout 2024; the current pullback represents a normalization from those highs rather than a return to 2023 pricing levels.

How much did vessel waiting times improve at major ports?

Waiting times improved significantly in Week 41: Busan decreased from 26 to 23 hours, Jawaharlal Nehru Port fell from 42 to 24 hours, and Singapore dropped from 50 to 34 hours. These reductions reflect better port utilization and cargo clearance during the Golden Week holiday period.

Which trade routes are affected most by the recent rate changes?

Shanghai outbound routes saw the steepest declines: Shanghai-Nhava Sheva (down 11%), Shanghai-Busan (down 8%), and Shanghai-Singapore (down 7%). Conversely, rates on routes originating in Busan and Yokohama to Shanghai rose modestly (4% each), while Shanghai-Jebel Ali remained elevated due to Middle East geopolitical risk.

Is the congestion relief permanent or temporary?

The article indicates easing congestion following the Golden Week holiday, but long-term sustainability depends on demand trends and port capacity. The 37% share of global congestion in North Asia, though improved from 50%, remains the highest regionally, suggesting structural capacity constraints may persist.

Why are shipping lines expanding services despite lower spot rates?

Carriers are introducing new regional services (OOCL's CCT4 and MSC's Jasmine services, for example) to capture market share and optimize route utilization. Strong year-to-date performance and elevated bunker costs justify the capital investment in service frequency, even as spot rates decline.

Shipping & Freight

Moderate

Intra-Asia Container Rates Fall 3% as Port Congestion Eases

Oct 22, 2026

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The signal

Intra-Asia container rates are retreating from recent peaks as congestion at major Chinese and regional ports subsides. Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index fell 3% to $1,453 per 40ft on October 15, driven by declining vessel waiting times and improved schedule reliability following China's Golden Week holiday. Rates from Shanghai to key destinations softened significantly: Nhava Sheva rates dropped 11% to $3,370 per 40ft, Busan fell 8% to $1,000, and Singapore decreased 7% to $1,973.

The improvement reflects a broader easing of regional port strain, with North Asia's share of global port congestion falling from 50% to 37%. Vessel waiting times decreased materially at major terminals, including Busan (23 hours from 26), Jawaharlal Nehru Port (24 hours from 42), and Singapore (34 hours from 50). However, demand weakness across Greater China and other Asian routes is compressing spot rates, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support elevated Shanghai-Jebel Ali rates at $8,416 per 40ft.

Despite recent softening, the intra-Asia market remains resilient, with the index up 198% year-on-year, sustained by high bunker costs and regional service expansion from carriers including OOCL and MSC.

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#asia-pacific-trade

#cargo-bottleneck

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if port congestion at Busan returns to 26-hour waiting times?

Model the impact of vessel waiting times increasing from current 23 hours back to 26 hours at Busan, reflecting potential congestion rebound. Recalculate inbound schedule reliability, emergency expediting costs, and SKU-level lead time impacts for Korea-bound shipments.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if demand weakness deepens across Greater China?

Simulate a 15-20% further softening in spot rates from Shanghai across North-east and South-east Asia routes if demand contraction accelerates. Assess whether freight cost savings offset lost service frequency and potential schedule reliability degradation.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if Middle East escalation drives Shanghai-Jebel Ali rates to $10,000+?

Model sustained geopolitical premium on Middle East routes, pushing Shanghai-Jebel Ali rates above $10,000 per 40ft. Evaluate alternative export lanes, inventory positioning near regional hubs, and hedging strategies for UAE-bound shipments.

Run this scenario

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