Maersk Raises 2026 Forecast on Soaring Ocean Freight Rates

Maersk significantly raised its 2026 financial guidance following exceptional third-quarter results driven by a 46% year-over-year increase in average ocean freight rates to USD 3,287 per FFE. The Danish shipping giant revised its underlying EBITDA forecast upward to USD 14-14.5 billion from USD 10.5-12.5 billion, reflecting sustained capacity constraints and supply chain disruptions across global shipping networks. However, loaded container volumes declined marginally by 0.8%, indicating that rate strength is compensating for softer demand rather than underlying volume growth.

The rate surge was underpinned by multiple structural factors including severe typhoons in East Asia, ongoing Strait of Hormuz closures, and elevated port congestion that peaked at 16.6 hours of waiting time in August 2023 levels. These disruptions created artificial capacity scarcity that carriers leveraged to improve pricing power. Meanwhile, fuel costs surged 49% year-over-year, partially offset by 6.3% reduced bunker consumption and partial Suez Canal returns.

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index climbed 46% quarter-over-quarter, validating market-wide rate pressure. For supply chain professionals, this dynamic presents both challenge and opportunity: while higher freight costs directly impact landed goods prices and margins, the structural investments Maersk is making in 26 new 18,600-TEU dual-fuel vessels and terminal expansion in Bangladesh and Brazil signal confidence in sustained demand. The company's guidance assumes only 4% full-year volume growth, suggesting expectations of moderating rates as new capacity comes online, yet geopolitical uncertainty and fuel cost volatility remain material risks to profitability trajectories.