Why is cross-border trucking capacity declining despite nearshoring growth?

Enforcement of B-1 visa driver restrictions and non-domiciled CDL rules has removed experienced cross-border drivers from the market. Combined with rising fuel costs and 30-45 day payment cycles that strain working capital, small and midsize trucking companies are reducing fleet sizes. Some Mexican carriers that expanded US operations are retreating to border-transfer models because they cannot find sufficient drivers for door-to-door service.

How does reduced capacity increase cargo theft risk?

According to the article, reduced driver and truck capacity forces freight to wait longer at transfer locations, many of which lack adequate security. Extended dwell times and increased handoffs create more exposure windows. Additionally, shippers under pressure to find capacity may hire unfamiliar carriers or drivers, accepting higher risk to move freight.

What is driving rate increases in Southern California during peak season?

Driver availability has become more difficult, and trucking rates are increasing due to fuel costs and repeated price adjustments. The capacity crunch manifests as fewer trucks and drivers available relative to freight volume, allowing carriers to raise rates while shippers compete for limited capacity.

Are manufacturing plants still expanding into Mexico despite nearshoring concerns?

Yes. According to Ben Enriquez at Transport Capacity Services, nearshoring continues because manufacturing expansions and plants were already in motion before recent tariff and geopolitical uncertainty. Many products, particularly automotive components, cross the border multiple times during production, demonstrating ongoing integration between US and Mexican manufacturing.

What infrastructure gaps are emerging in Mexico's manufacturing regions?

Road, rail, airport and port infrastructure in Mexico's Bajío manufacturing region have not expanded as quickly as manufacturing investment. This concentrates high-value cargo along the same corridors, increasing theft risk and putting pressure on existing transportation resources that are already stretched thin.

Shipping & Freight

High Impact

Nearshoring Boom Hits Trucking Capacity Wall at US-Mexico Border

Sep 30, 2026

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The signal

The article highlights a critical supply chain tension: nearshoring investment between the US and Mexico continues to accelerate, yet the trucking capacity needed to support this trend is contracting. Enforcement actions against Mexican B-1 visa drivers and non-domiciled commercial driver's license holders are removing drivers from the market faster than new capacity is being added, forcing some Mexican carriers to abandon door-to-door service and revert to trailer transfers at the border.

Simultaneously, concentrated freight flows through existing corridors, particularly in Mexico's Bajío manufacturing region, are creating cargo theft risks and security vulnerabilities. Rising fuel costs and payment delays of 30-45 days are straining small and midsize trucking companies, many of which are reducing fleet sizes due to driver shortages or insufficient working capital.

This mismatch between growing demand and shrinking supply is already visible in Southern California during peak shipping season, manifesting as rate increases, longer dwell times, and reduced carrier reliability.

#nearshoring

#cross-border-trucking

#driver-shortage

#us-mexico-trade

#capacity-constraints

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if cross-border driver availability drops another 20% in the next 12 months?

Model a scenario where enforcement actions and working capital constraints reduce available cross-border drivers by an additional 20% over the next year. Simulate the impact on transit times from Mexican manufacturing hubs (Bajío region) to US distribution centers, freight dwell times at border transfer points, and trucking rates for last-mile delivery in Southern California and Southwest US regions.

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Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if trucking rates into Southern California increase 15-25% due to capacity constraints?

Model a scenario where capacity squeeze in cross-border trucking drives rate increases of 15-25% for freight entering Southern California. Simulate the impact on landed cost for automotive components and manufactured goods crossing the border, breakeven analysis for nearshoring economics, and potential shifts in sourcing strategy if rates exceed internal cost-of-capital thresholds.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if cargo theft losses increase 30% due to extended dwell times at unsecured transfer points?

Model a scenario where reduced trucking capacity forces freight to spend 25-40% longer at border transfer facilities and intermediary warehouses with limited security. Simulate the impact on shrink rates for high-value cargo (automotive components), insurance premiums for cross-border shipments, and the business case for investing in real-time cargo tracking and security technologies.

Run this scenario

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