Nepal Floods Trigger 300% Price Hikes, Devastate Food Supply Chain

What if primary agricultural routes remain blocked for 2 additional weeks?

Simulate sustained closure of main highways serving Kathmandu Valley for 14 more days beyond current disruption. Model impact on: goat supply availability (further 10-15% reduction below current 38,000-40,000 forecast), vegetable inventory depletion in retail channels, price escalation across perishable categories, and working capital strain on traders holding stranded inventory. Assume no route alternatives available and limited cold storage capacity.

What if emergency cold storage capacity is deployed to buffer peak demand?

Simulate deployment of temporary refrigerated warehousing at 3-5 distribution nodes in Kathmandu Valley to hold perishable inventory during route disruptions. Model impact on: price stabilization (target: reduce inflation by 20-30% through inventory buffering), goods loss reduction (assume 15-25% current loss rate on vegetables), supply smoothing across remaining festival period, and trader profitability recovery. Assume 5,000-10,000 cubic meters of temporary cold storage activated within 48 hours.

What if alternative sourcing from neighboring districts bypasses blocked routes?

Simulate rerouting vegetable supplies from Dhading, Nuwakot, Makwanpur, and Kavre through secondary mountain passes or air freight to avoid main highway closures. Model impact on: transportation cost increase (air freight: assume 3-5x road cost), supply reliability improvement (assume 70-80% restoration of normal vegetable flow), price moderation on high-inflation items (chilies, greens, herbs), and feasibility constraints for low-margin produce. Assess which product categories justify premium logistics.