Ocean Disruption Fails to Spur Mass Airfreight Switch

Despite ongoing ocean shipping disruptions, shippers are not making wholesale conversions to airfreight. DSV's head of global airfreight reports that most customers remain on seafreight routes because the 10-20x cost premium of emergency lift cannot be justified for delays they view as tolerable, typically two to three weeks. This reflects a fundamental economics problem in modal substitution: while ocean routes face congestion and delays, airfreight capacity is already contracted months in advance, leaving ad hoc demand competing for prohibitively expensive spot capacity.

The challenge extends beyond pure cost. Sea-to-air conversions require significant operational changes including new documentation, dangerous goods compliance checks, aircraft-compatible packaging, and maintenance of temperature-controlled chains. A case study involving Honduran okra shipments to the UK illustrates these complexities: even a single successful trial demanded USDA permits, synchronized arrival windows with air capacity, and consistent forwarding arrangements that break down once seasonal demand ends.

For supply chain professionals, this signals that resilience strategies must focus on ocean route diversification and longer-term contingency arrangements rather than ad hoc modal switching. Airlines and forwarders increasingly lock in dedicated capacity through long-term contracts, leaving spontaneous demand in a precarious position.