Why is the traditional August peak no longer relevant?

Geopolitical risks, port disruptions, and unreliable schedules (only 60% on-time performance) have forced companies to start shipping in late May or June rather than July-August. Companies deliberately spread volumes over months to absorb disruptions without losing entire shipments. Additionally, the Middle East conflict has delayed any return to the Suez Canal route, forcing longer transits around Africa (60 days vs. 45 days via Red Sea).

How are customs changes affecting e-commerce logistics?

The EU abolished the EUR 150 duty exemption on July 1, 2026, replacing it with a EUR 3 per goods category charge. This caused low-value shipment imports to drop over 30% and air shipments in that category to fall nearly 33%. Companies are shifting to larger shipments via sea or rail and building inventory inside the EU for local fulfillment, changing the economics of the entire parcel.

Which transport modes are gaining traction and why?

Rail freight from China to Europe is growing (29% more trains in Q1 2026 vs. prior year) because it offers diversification away from disrupted sea freight. Air freight remains critical for high-value AI infrastructure (servers, processors, cooling systems) despite higher costs. Road transport will peak during consumer seasons. The trend reflects deliberate modal diversification for resilience.

Why is Central and Eastern Europe becoming a logistics hub?

Poland recorded record transshipment volumes and demand for warehouse space is at its highest since 2022. E-commerce sector leased over 800,000 m² in H1 2026. Chinese players are major tenants. The region offers greater port flexibility, stable 3% annual economic growth, lower labor costs, and serves as a nearshore fulfillment base inside the EU. This trend is spreading to Czech Republic and Romania.

What new demand drivers are emerging in air freight?

AI infrastructure and data center equipment is a fast-growing segment. Servers, graphics processors, network components, and cooling systems are high-value, time-sensitive, and scheduled tightly around data center launches. This demand is offsetting weaker e-commerce volumes and competing aggressively for cargo space during peak periods, keeping airfreight prices elevated.

Demand Planning

High Impact

Peak Season 2026: Spreading Shipments Across Months, Not Weeks

Oct 13, 2026

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The signal

The traditional August peak in sea freight is disappearing. Companies are now spreading shipments across May through October to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, port disruptions, and schedule unreliability. Only 60% of sailings run on schedule, while Red Sea tensions, Chinese port typhoons, Indian terminal congestion, and European labor strikes create a new operational reality.

This shift is structural, not temporary. Firms are building resilience by shipping earlier, diversifying transport modes (sea to rail to air), and relocating inventory into Central and Eastern Europe. The EU's new customs duties on low-value shipments (effective July 1) further accelerate this trend: e-commerce is moving larger volumes via slower, cheaper modes and building EU warehouses instead of relying on air freight for last-minute delivery.

For supply chain teams, this means planning windows have compressed significantly. Decisions must be made weeks earlier than in past years. Simultaneously, new demand is emerging: AI infrastructure and data centers are competing aggressively for air cargo capacity, while co-packing and fulfillment services are driving warehouse demand to its highest level since 2022, especially in Poland, Czech Republic, and Romania.

#peak-shipping-season

#supply-chain-resilience

#geopolitical-disruption

#red-sea-crisis

#e-commerce-logistics

#inventory-strategy

#nearshoring

#central-eastern-europe

#modal-diversification

#customs-policy

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if Red Sea route remains blocked through Q4 2026?

Assume Suez Canal remains closed and all Asia-Europe ocean freight continues routing around Africa, extending transit times from 45 days to 60 days. Model the impact on inventory holding costs, safety stock requirements, and modal shift pressure (increased rail and air adoption). Apply this to all Asian origin shipments destined for Europe.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if port schedule reliability drops further to 50% on-time performance?

Current on-time reliability stands at 60%. Model the scenario where typhoons, strikes, or new geopolitical events degrade this to 50%. Simulate impact on safety stock levels, emergency air freight trigger points, and customer service level targets. Apply to major Asian and European ports.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if low-value e-commerce shipments shift 50% more volume from air to sea?

EU customs duties are already driving modal shift from air to sea and rail. Model a scenario where an additional 50% more low-value parcel volume migrates to slower modes. Calculate warehouse capacity needs inside EU fulfillment centers, inventory carrying costs, and the impact on last-mile delivery speed and cost structure.

Run this scenario

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Supply Chain Simulation: How It Works and How to Choose Software

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