Why aren't tender rejection rates surging into Labor Day as they have in previous years?

According to FreightWaves SONAR data, rail is absorbing a significant share of long-haul freight that would otherwise move by truckload. This structural shift is keeping trucking volumes steady rather than creating supply-constrained conditions. Additionally, the freight market is currently supply-driven rather than demand-driven, preventing the typical seasonal tightening cycle.

How do current spot and contract rates compare to last year?

Van spot rates are at $3.29 per mile—down 2.5% month-over-month from the cycle peak but still up 44% year-over-year. Contract rates are up 17% year-over-year. The narrowing gap between spot and contract rates indicates shippers are adjusting routing guides upward to maintain intact agreements.

What is the cycle peak for tender rejections, and how far below it are we?

The 2026 tender rejection rate peaked above 17.5% during the current cycle, but has since consolidated to around 13.5% heading into Labor Day. Analysts had anticipated rates reaching the 18% range but no longer believe that is likely, representing a departure from historical seasonal patterns.

What key metrics should supply chain teams monitor going forward?

Professionals should watch volume data market-by-market as Labor Day passes, with particular attention on whether coastal markets accelerate. Weekly AAR rail freight data, published every Wednesday, remains a critical indicator of whether trucking will experience demand-driven tightening as peak season progresses.

Does this 'new normal' suggest permanent changes to trucking demand patterns?

The article indicates this may reflect structural shifts in the freight market, particularly intermodal rail gaining share of long-haul volumes. However, it remains unclear whether this represents a temporary seasonal anomaly or a lasting change to modal dynamics. Continued monitoring through peak season will provide clarity.

Demand Planning

Moderate

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Unlike historical patterns, North American trucking markets are not experiencing the typical pre-Labor Day surge in tender rejections and freight tightness. 5% cycle peak and far short of anticipated 18% levels. This represents a structural shift in the freight landscape—rail carriers are capturing significant long-haul volume that traditionally moved by truck, effectively suppressing demand-driven pricing pressure heading into peak season.

80 per mile. Contract rates remain 17% above year-ago levels, and the narrowing gap between spot and contract pricing reflects shipper routing guide adjustments to preserve capacity agreements. This market behavior signals supply-driven fundamentals rather than demand-driven tightness—a critical distinction for shippers and carriers planning capital allocation and logistics network strategy.

Supply chain professionals should recalibrate peak season expectations and monitor coastal market acceleration, rail freight volumes, and market-by-market demand patterns as Labor Day passes. The orderly market conditions suggest capacity remains adequate despite seasonal pressures, but the intermodal shift raises questions about long-term modal mix, driver retention, and equipment positioning strategies for carriers and logistics providers.

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#trucking-market

#intermodal-rail

#supply-chain-dynamics

#labor-day-2026

#freight-volumes

#market-softness

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Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if rail freight volumes decline 10% in Q4, shifting volumes back to trucking?

Model a scenario where intermodal rail capacity constraints or service delays cause a 10% decline in rail's long-haul freight volume, forcing shippers to reallocate those shipments to truckload. Assess the resulting tender rejection rate spike, spot rate increases, and driver availability pressure as volumes shift back to trucking ahead of and during peak season.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if coastal market acceleration drives 15% demand spike post-Labor Day?

Simulate a scenario where import volumes surge at coastal ports after Labor Day, driven by holiday merchandise buildup. Model a 15% month-over-month increase in freight demand concentrated in lanes from ports to inland distribution centers. Project the resulting pressure on tender rejection rates, driver availability, and equipment positioning needs.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if contract rate pressure forces shippers to increase routing guide maximums by 20%?

Model a scenario where continued spot rate volatility and tender rejection pressures force shippers to raise their contract routing guide maximums by 20% to maintain carrier service level agreements. Assess the resulting cost impact, margin compression for carriers, and changes to modal economics and sourcing decisions.

Run this scenario

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