Port Houston emerges as West Coast alternative amid Asia congestion

What if West Coast port congestion worsens, forcing 30 percent more volume through Houston?

Model a scenario where Port of LA/Long Beach and NY/NJ congestion increases, redirecting an additional 30 percent of Asia containerized imports through Port Houston. Assume this shift accelerates over the next 90 days as retailers activate contingency plans. Evaluate impact on: (1) Port Houston terminal capacity constraints and berth availability; (2) Inland transportation costs and truck availability from Houston to major distribution centers; (3) Dwell time at Port Houston and whether the port can handle sustained 30 percent higher volumes; (4) Overall landed cost per container for retailers using Houston versus West Coast ports.

What if the EC6 Asia-Houston direct service achieves 95 percent vessel utilization by Q4 2021?

Model a scenario where THE Alliance's new EC6 direct service (launching May 2021) rapidly gains adoption among retailers and reaches 95 percent vessel utilization by Q4 2021. Evaluate: (1) Whether Port Houston's current infrastructure can accommodate sustained weekly sailings at this utilization level; (2) Cost per TEU reductions from dedicated service versus transshipment alternatives; (3) Lead time compression benefits compared to indirect Asia-to-West Coast-to-Houston routing; (4) Network effects: does this success trigger additional direct services to other Gulf Coast ports (New Orleans, Mobile).

What if Project 11 completion delays by 12 months while volume redirects to Houston?

Model a risk scenario where Project 11 expansion (channel widening and deepening) experiences delays of 12 months, while volume redirection from West Coast ports to Houston accelerates due to sustained congestion. Evaluate: (1) Port Houston's ability to operate efficiently with larger ships arriving before channel expansion is complete; (2) Throughput constraints if channel remains at current 530-foot width while newer mega-container ships demand 700-foot clearance; (3) Opportunity cost: lost revenue and customer defection to Mobile, New Orleans, or back to West Coast ports; (4) Mitigation options: terminal-level productivity improvements, extended shift operations, or rate adjustments.