Q3 Freight Spending Surges 32% Annually While Volumes Stall

The third quarter U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index shows a market characterized by rising costs without corresponding volume growth. Shipper spending increased 32.1% year-over-year to an index value of 242.4, yet shipment volumes remained soft with only marginal sequential gains of 0.4%.

This divergence stems from two primary drivers: tighter carrier capacity driven by regulatory enforcement and elevated diesel prices that reached $6.53 per gallon in September, creating fuel surcharges that inflate shipper expenses independently of demand. The weakness in freight volumes reflects a fragmented economic recovery concentrated in specialized sectors such as aerospace, defense, AI, and data center construction, while broader manufacturing and construction activity remain subdued. Regional performance varied considerably, with the Southeast showing the strongest sequential growth at 4.7% but most regions posting year-over-year declines or flat readings.

This disconnect between overall economic strength and freight demand suggests supply chain professionals should prepare for sustained cost pressures without relief from volume-driven pricing leverage. The market conditions underscore a structural challenge: capacity constraints and regulatory enforcement are constraining carrier supply while demand remains insufficient to absorb available trucking services at historical rates. Supply chain teams must navigate this environment by optimizing load factors, reconsidering consolidation strategies, and monitoring diesel price movements that will continue to pressure transportation budgets regardless of actual shipment activity.