Record September Imports Signal Extended Peak Season, Warehouse Capacity Tight

U.S. container imports reached a record 2.546 million TEUs in September, up 10.3% year-over-year, extending an unusually prolonged peak shipping season that began early and stretched through summer and early fall. The National Retail Federation now projects full-year 2026 imports at 25.8 million TEUs (up 1.4% from 2025), with October revised upward to 2.25 million TEUs, suggesting sustained cargo volumes longer than previously forecasted. However, this extended import surge is straining critical supply chain resources: warehouse capacity contracted sharply to 39.3 on the Logistics Managers' Index (down 14.2 points from August), while warehouse utilization expanded to 64.3. Transportation capacity marked its tenth consecutive month of contraction at 34.4, with freight prices climbing to 92.7.

China remains the dominant source of U.S.-bound goods, accounting for 36.3% of September imports (924,454 TEUs, up 21.2% annually), demonstrating that despite trade policy uncertainties and diversification efforts, Asian suppliers continue to capture the bulk of containerized trade. Port performance deteriorated across major gateways, with the Port of New York and New Jersey experiencing the sharpest delays: average wait times increased 1.5 days to 8.3 days. Eight of the ten largest U.S. container ports recorded rising transit delays during the month. Consumer spending remains robust (core retail sales up 3.73% annually in September), bolstering import demand even as economic sentiment weakens.

For supply chain professionals, this scenario presents a dual challenge: managing elevated import volumes while operating within constrained warehouse and transportation infrastructure. Most holiday merchandise has already landed, shifting focus to last-minute replenishment and early 2027 planning. The combination of tight capacity, elevated freight costs, and extended peak season means companies must prioritize visibility into changing costs and trade conditions while maintaining flexibility in sourcing and routing decisions.