Russian strikes disrupt Ukrainian barley exports via Black Sea

What if Black Sea barley export capacity drops 40-60% for the next 3-6 months?

Model the impact of sustained disruption to Ukrainian barley exports through Black Sea ports due to ongoing military strikes. Assume export capacity reduces by 40 to 60 percent. Simulate effects on barley sourcing availability, transportation costs via alternative routes, and inventory requirements for buyers dependent on Ukrainian supply.