Tariff Risk Strategies for Retail and Hospitality Leaders

What if tariffs increase 25% on imported goods over next 90 days?

Model a tariff increase scenario where procurement costs for imported goods rise 25% beginning in 90 days. Evaluate impact on: (1) landed cost per unit across key SKUs, (2) retail/hospitality pricing power and demand elasticity, (3) working capital and cash flow, (4) inventory strategy (advance purchases vs. demand risk), and (5) margin compression across channels. Compare scenarios with different sourcing diversification strategies.

What if you accelerate nearshoring to reduce tariff exposure by 40%?

Simulate a nearshoring strategy where 40% of high-tariff imported volume shifts to North American suppliers over 6-12 months. Model: (1) tariff cost savings, (2) landed cost changes (including higher labor but lower tariffs and shorter lead times), (3) supply chain flexibility gains, (4) transition costs and capex, (5) lead time reduction benefits, and (6) working capital impact. Compare against baseline tariff-exposed scenario.

What if supply chain lead times extend 3-4 weeks due to tariff-driven route changes?

Model a scenario where tariff avoidance strategies (alternative ports, transshipment points, route changes) extend lead times by 3-4 weeks. Evaluate impact on: (1) safety stock levels and inventory investment, (2) demand forecasting accuracy requirements, (3) service level targets (fill rates, on-shelf availability), (4) demand-to-supply planning frequency, and (5) working capital tied up in slower-moving inventory. Assess trade-offs between tariff savings and operational complexity.