Why are tender rejections jumping faster now than in previous Labor Days?

According to FreightWaves, the national Tender Rejection Index has climbed faster during this Labor Day period than in each of the past three years. This acceleration reflects that underlying capacity has not meaningfully expanded—it has simply stopped contracting. This creates a rigid supply picture where even normal holiday demand pulses trigger sharper rejection rate spikes. The article emphasizes that 'stabilizing at a high level does not mean that this cycle is over,' indicating that tight structural conditions amplify sensitivity to any demand uptick.

What caused the softness in July and August if demand hasn't weakened?

The modest rejection rates and lower tender volumes in July and August resulted from modal conversion—shippers temporarily shifting freight to intermodal rail and other modes—rather than fundamental demand destruction. Zach Strickland from FreightWaves notes that total freight volumes have not meaningfully decreased. The process of capacity contraction slowing down took roughly six to seven months to stabilize, creating a temporary equilibrium that masked ongoing supply tightness.

Which freight modes are showing the most volatility and why?

Van spot rates are exhibiting the most volatility, with swing patterns comparable to COVID-era market conditions. Flatbed rates remain elevated (supported by data center construction) but are drifting lower, suggesting that market may be 'overheated.' Refrigerated rates are holding steady, buoyed by seasonal produce demand and the absence of intermodal competition that typically pressures dry van rates. This mode divergence reflects differing supply-demand balances across segments.

When will freight market conditions normalize?

The article suggests van spot rate volatility will remain 'the defining market dynamic through the end of the year.' Strickland cautions that even if the market stabilizes, any nuance or disruption triggers outsized volatility in tight markets. Tender volumes are expected to spike sharply once shippers return after Labor Day. Hurricane risk—normally a significant disruptor in late summer—is muted due to El Niño patterns, providing temporary relief but not addressing underlying capacity constraints.

What should shippers and carriers do to prepare for post-Labor Day demand?

Shippers should front-load orders before the holiday to secure capacity at predictable rates and avoid post-holiday rejection surges. Carriers need to recognize that tight markets amplify volatility, meaning even modest demand increases will drive significant rate moves. Brokers and 3PLs should build flexibility into contracts to absorb service disruptions. The article's core insight is that 'any incremental demand increase or supply disruption will produce outsized rate moves,' making contingency planning essential.

Demand Planning

High Impact

Tender Rejections Spike 14%: Labor Day Demand Tightens Freight Market

Sep 3, 2026

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The signal

S. freight market is experiencing renewed tightness ahead of the Labor Day holiday, with tender rejection rates climbing above 14%—a faster pace than the same period over the past three years. 5%. According to FreightWaves analysis, the earlier softness reflected modal conversion (shippers switching to intermodal or rail) rather than genuine demand weakness, meaning total freight volumes have not meaningfully declined.

The critical insight is that capacity has stopped contracting but has not expanded meaningfully. This supply-constrained environment makes the market extraordinarily sensitive to even modest demand increases, as evidenced by the outsized rejection rate jump before a single holiday. Van spot rates are exhibiting unprecedented volatility—comparable to COVID-era market swings—while flatbed and refrigerated segments show divergent trends: flatbed remains elevated due to data center construction but is drifting lower, while reefer rates hold steady on seasonal produce demand. Industry analysts caution against interpreting the recent stabilization as a cycle reversal; instead, this tight market architecture amplifies the impact of any disruption.

For supply chain professionals, this environment demands proactive capacity planning and contingency protocols. With rejection rates poised to spike further post-Labor Day as shippers resume operations, procurement teams must front-load orders and negotiate flexibility into carrier contracts. The article highlights that even benign demand patterns now produce outsized rate volatility, meaning traditional cost modeling may underestimate Q4 transportation expenses. Hurricane season suppression due to El Niño provides a temporary reprieve, but the structural supply-demand imbalance suggests elevated freight costs and service delays will persist through year-end.

#supply-chain-volatility

#flatbed-rates

#reefer-freight

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if post-Labor Day tender volumes spike 20% above forecast?

Simulate a scenario where shippers resume operations after Labor Day and submit 20% more freight requests than normal seasonal expectations. Model the impact on tender rejection rates, average spot rates across van/flatbed/reefer segments, carrier utilization, and shipper service levels given current tight capacity.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if carrier capacity contracts by 3-5% due to seasonal withdrawals or equipment repositioning?

Model a scenario where 3-5% of active trucking capacity exits the market during the critical post-Labor Day period due to equipment maintenance, driver attrition, or seasonal shutdown. Assess impact on rejection rates, spot rate escalation, geographic service gaps, and recommended procurement adjustments.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if flatbed demand continues to climb due to sustained data center buildout?

Simulate sustained elevated flatbed demand through Q4 driven by ongoing data center construction and equipment shipments. Model flatbed rate trajectory, capacity utilization, equipment availability, and cross-mode substitution (van conversion to flatbed). Assess whether rates can sustain elevated levels or face correction.

Run this scenario

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