TL Linehaul Rates Jump 10% in September as Capacity Tightens

Truckload linehaul rates continued their upward trajectory in September 2026, rising 10.1% year-over-year according to Cass Information Systems data, marking the 21st consecutive month of year-over-year gains. The sequential month-over-month increase of 0.6% brought the index to its highest absolute level in four years, though the rate of growth moderated slightly from historical averages. Cass data processing $37 billion in annual freight payables reveals that contract rates remain the primary driver of the increase, even as spot rates experienced seasonal pullback with fewer bidding opportunities typical for this time of year.

Freight shipments showed positive momentum with a 1.9% year-over-year increase in September, marking the second consecutive month of gains after 42 months of declines. This recovery reflects modest retail and industrial growth combined with inventory restocking driven by surging container imports. Expenditures jumped 20.4% year-over-year, reflecting the combined impact of increased shipment volume, higher freight rates, and diesel prices that surged 68% annually, representing a 15% increase from August alone.

The market dynamics reveal structural capacity constraints: carrier executives report ongoing capacity exodus while regulatory crackdowns are expected to remove additional unsafe operators. Tender rejection indices indicate a persistently tight truck market, positioning carriers in a position of strength during fall bid season. Werner Enterprises' third-quarter guidance forecasting a 10-13% increase in rate per total mile underscores carrier confidence in sustained rate elevation, setting the stage for elevated logistics costs through the remainder of the year.