Truck Tonnage Rebounds in September But Q3 Shows Weakness

September truck tonnage rebounded with a 0.8% gain after declining in August, signaling mixed demand signals in the U.S. trucking market. The American Trucking Associations' seasonally-adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index reached 114 in September, though year-to-date tonnage is up only 0.9%, reflecting significant weakness in July and August.

This matters to supply chain professionals because softer tonnage levels paired with contracting capacity indicate a tightening freight market where motor carriers have pricing power. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello emphasized that despite soft demand, the contraction in available capacity is creating a more favorable environment for carriers, which translates to higher transportation costs and potential service constraints for shippers.

The broader picture shows demand remains sluggish after robust performance in early 2024, suggesting supply chain teams should prepare for a challenging freight market with less negotiating leverage and elevated rate pressures.