Why are truckload rejections high at 12.8% yet the market feels flat?

High rejections can reflect either carrier selectivity at elevated rates or insufficient volume growth to sustain bidding pressure. FreightWaves data shows the tender rejection index has moved only 1 percentage point over 20 days, indicating stalled momentum. This suggests demand growth (up 12% year-over-year in November) is not accelerating fast enough to overcome existing capacity or convince carriers to take marginal loads at current prices.

What is driving refrigerated freight to 21% rejections?

Thanksgiving-related food shipments and tightening reefer capacity are primary drivers. Additionally, forecasters are calling the current El Niño the strongest in over 100 years, which poses significant pressure on protect-from-freeze freight covering food products and electronics heading into winter. This elevated rejection rate in reefer contrasts sharply with flat dry van rates, indicating segment-specific capacity constraints rather than systemwide tightness.

How do rate trends by mode reflect market dynamics?

Refrigerated rates broke out sharply in July and remain elevated, flatbed rates hold a premium supported by AI data center construction (with 2026 forecasts at 28% year-over-year cost-per-mile increases), while dry van rates have largely flattened. This divergence signals that rate strength is concentrated in capacity-constrained segments, not across the entire trucking market, limiting the ability to sustain broad market tightness.

What does the Pacific Northwest seasonal surge mean for capacity planning?

The Pacific Northwest experiences sharp seasonal peaks around apple, potato, and Christmas tree harvests after being 'pretty much dead 9 months out of the year' according to analysts. This year's early November rate relief may be more limited than usual, meaning planners should expect sustained tightness in that region through December and potentially higher rates if El Niño weather events disrupt logistics.

What should shippers expect for 2027 contract rates based on current market signals?

Analysts note that the next two weeks around Thanksgiving will be the clearest test of whether sufficient momentum exists to set up a tighter environment for 2027 contract season. Current market flatness despite elevated rejections suggests cautious optimism at best; if demand fails to accelerate further, 2027 rates may remain flat or decline. Winter weather, especially its impact on refrigerated capacity, adds an unpredictable wildcard.

Demand Planning

Moderate

Trucking Market Flat Despite 12.8% Rejections: What's Ahead

Nov 10, 2026

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The signal

The U.S. trucking market is showing unusual resilience and weakness simultaneously. While truckload tender rejections have climbed to 12.8%, nearly double last year's 6%, the market has failed to build meaningful momentum despite approaching peak holiday season. This disconnect suggests either oversupply at higher price points or demand destruction, with significant implications for 2027 contract negotiations.

Refrigerated freight is the notable exception, with rejections reaching 21% versus 12.6% a year ago, driven by Thanksgiving shipments and a forecasted super El Niño that threatens additional capacity constraints through winter. Meanwhile, November demand is up 12% year-over-year and 3% from October, marking the first meaningful pickup, yet spot rates in dry van remain flat while reefer and flatbed segments show strength tied to AI data center construction and seasonal agricultural activity. For supply chain professionals, this creates a critical inflection point.

The next two weeks around Thanksgiving will determine whether the market can build sufficient tightness to support stronger 2027 rates or if structural oversupply will prevail. Shippers with refrigerated needs face immediate capacity risks, while those planning flatbed or data center logistics should capitalize on current premiums before potential market normalization.

#truckload-rejections

#peak-season-logistics

#refrigerated-freight

#tender-volume

#freight-rates

#capacity-constraints

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if El Niño freezing events reduce refrigerated capacity by 15% through December?

Model the impact of a super El Niño winter reducing available refrigerated truck capacity by 15% from December through February, affecting food shipments, frozen goods, and temperature-sensitive electronics logistics. Assess changes to reefer spot rates, service levels, and lead times for perishable commodities moving to retail distribution centers.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if November demand growth continues at 12% through year-end?

Simulate sustained 12% year-over-year demand growth in November and December outbound tender volumes, testing whether this acceleration can generate sufficient market tightness to push dry van rejections above 15% and support 2027 contract rate increases of 5-8%.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if flatbed rates moderate by 15% post-peak season?

Model a scenario where AI data center construction activity normalizes in January 2026, reducing flatbed demand and causing rates to moderate 15% from current premium levels. Assess implications for equipment utilization, carrier profitability, and whether carriers exit flatbed for dry van operations.

Run this scenario

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