Why are trucking rates rising if freight demand is flat?

Capacity is leaving the market faster than freight volume is declining. SONAR's tender rejection index jumped 268% since October 2023 while tender volume only grew 9%. This supply-side contraction means fewer trucks competing for roughly the same freight, allowing carriers to command higher rates and turn down unprofitable loads.

What is the actual cost to operate a truck in 2026?

The American Transportation Research Institute's 2026 study found the average cost of operating a truck at $2.336 per mile in 2025, up 3.4% from 2024. Excluding fuel, costs rose 4.2%. Nearly every cost line set a record, with tolls up 13.2%, repair and maintenance up 8.6%, and driver benefits up 6.6%.

How far behind costs are current trucking rates?

Dry van contract linehaul rates averaged $2.81 per mile in 2022 but fell to $2.32 by 2024-2025. Q3 2026 rates averaged $2.69 per mile, still below Q4 2021 levels. At current rates, a typical dry van truck covers marginal costs but generates only 15% revenue for overhead, versus the 26% needed historically. Spot market rates have actually fallen below non-fuel operating costs for three straight years.

Will trucking rates keep rising through 2027?

Yes, according to the analysis. Current rates are still about 14% short of what carriers need to cover overhead responsibly. Even running trucks near the hours-of-service ceiling leaves carriers about 5% short. SONAR's Chicago to Atlanta lane projection shows rates holding near current levels into 2027, with upward pressure likely to persist.

Why can't carriers just add more trucks at today's rates?

Adding capacity at current rates would not generate sufficient margin to finance new equipment. Carriers need rates roughly 14% higher to achieve the overhead contribution ratio necessary to justify new truck purchases and maintain long-term viability. This is why the market must reprice before meaningful capacity additions occur.

Shipping & Freight

High Impact

Trucking Rates Rise as Capacity Exits Market, Not Demand

Oct 9, 2026

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The signal

Trucking rates are rising in 2026, but not because freight demand is surging. Instead, carriers are exiting the market faster than freight volume is growing, creating a supply-side correction. SONAR data shows tender rejections up 268% since October 2023 while tender volume grew only 9%, indicating carriers now have more options and can turn down less profitable loads.

Operating costs have reached record levels: the American Transportation Research Institute pegs 2025 truck operating costs at $2.336 per mile (up 3.4% from 2024), while dry van contract rates averaged only $2.69 per mile in Q3 2026. This leaves carriers with only a 15% revenue cushion for overhead, well below the 26% needed to operate sustainably. Tolls, repairs, driver benefits, and insurance have all surged faster than inflation.

The repricing is only halfway complete: rates would need to rise another 14% for carriers to responsibly invest in new capacity. This structural imbalance means shippers and brokers should expect sustained rate pressure into 2027, with no relief until carrier economics improve materially.

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if trucking rates spike another 15% in 2027?

Model the impact of a 15% increase in linehaul rates across all truckload services, including contract and spot lanes. Simulate effects on procurement costs for companies with significant dedicated or high-frequency truckload shipments, particularly for expedited or temperature-controlled freight.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if carrier capacity remains at 2026 levels into 2028?

Assume that tractor counts remain flat (or continue declining) and do not recover through 2028, forcing shippers to compete harder for available capacity and accept higher rates or service level concessions (longer transit windows, less flexibility). Model impact on procurement budgets and service level targets.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if diesel prices climb another $0.75 per gallon?

Model the combined effect of diesel rising from the current $6.38 per gallon to $7.13 per gallon. Analyze how this would compress carrier margins further, potentially accelerate more capacity exits, and whether it would trigger another round of rate corrections. Assess impact on freight cost and sourcing decisions.

Run this scenario

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