Ukrainian Metal Exports Face 70% Capacity Loss Without Sea Routes

What if sea freight capacity remains unavailable for 6 months?

Simulate a scenario where Ukrainian sea freight exports are unavailable for 180 days. Assume alternative rail and road routes can absorb maximum 28% of baseline metallurgical export volumes. Calculate the impact on European metal supply chains that depend on Ukrainian sourcing, including inventory policy adjustments, price impacts, and service level degradation for downstream customers.

What if we diversify metal sourcing away from Ukraine entirely?

Evaluate a strategic sourcing scenario where buyers reduce Ukrainian metallurgical input from current levels to 20-30% and substitute with suppliers in stable maritime-accessible regions (e.g., Australia, Canada, South Africa). Calculate supply chain costs, lead times, quality/specification matching, and onboarding timelines for alternative suppliers.

What if we shift 30% of metal sourcing to alternative corridors?

Model the cost and service level impact of redirecting current Ukrainian metal imports through rail corridors into eastern Europe instead of sea routes. Compare transit times, landed costs (accounting for higher per-unit transport), and lead time variability across alternative routes (e.g., through Poland, Romania, Hungary). Assess inventory and safety stock requirements.