How could a tariff deal affect my sourcing costs from China?

A reduction or freeze in tariff rates would lower landed costs on Chinese imports, potentially recovering 5-15% of recent cost increases depending on product category and tariff suspension duration. Conversely, tariff increases or new product coverage would raise costs and compress margins. Supply chain teams should model cost scenarios under 10%, 15%, and 25% tariff scenarios to prepare for either outcome.

Why is TikTok included in tariff negotiations?

TikTok is included because it represents a high-profile point of contention in U.S.-China relations. Using TikTok as a negotiating chip alongside tariffs allows both governments to address trade remedies and technology/national security concerns in parallel. A breakthrough on TikTok could unlock momentum on tariff discussions, or vice versa.

What should I do now while talks are ongoing?

Avoid committing to long-term pricing or volume commitments until tariff outcomes are clearer. Build scenario plans for three tariff outcomes: status quo, 10% rate reduction, or 15% increase. Consider gradual inventory buildup of tariff-sensitive categories if talks stall, but avoid overcommitting cash. Monitor official announcements weekly.

Which product categories are most exposed to tariff changes?

Electronics (especially semiconductors, consumer devices), apparel, footwear, furniture, and industrial machinery carry the highest tariff rates and thus greatest exposure to negotiation outcomes. Products already under high tariff schedules (15-25%) have the most at stake.

Could this lead to supply chain diversification away from China?

A sustained tariff deal that lowers uncertainty may actually delay diversification, as companies gain confidence in China sourcing. However, continued escalation or deal breakdown would accelerate nearshoring and Vietnam/India/Mexico sourcing strategies. The talks are thus a critical inflection point for supply base decisions.

Trade Policy & Tariffs

High Impact

US-China Resume Tariff Talks Amid TikTok Ban Uncertainty

May 26, 2026

Get tomorrow's supply chain signal

Daily supply-chain brief. Free, unsubscribe anytime.

The signal

-China tariff negotiations signals a potential shift in bilateral trade relations, though significant uncertainty remains around both tariff schedules and the fate of TikTok operations. -China trade flows. The dual agenda—tariffs plus TikTok—compounds the complexity, as policymakers must balance trade remedies with technology policy, creating overlapping risks for import-dependent industries.

For supply chain professionals, the stakes are high. Tariff rate changes directly impact landed costs for goods sourced from China, potentially affecting margin structures across retail, consumer electronics, and manufacturing sectors. The uncertainty itself is costly; companies cannot confidently commit to long-term sourcing or pricing strategies without clarity on whether new tariffs will apply to their product categories.

Additionally, any resolution on TikTok could signal broader willingness to engage on trade disputes, or conversely, hardening positions on technology and national security grounds. -China flows, while a breakdown could trigger emergency sourcing diversification, nearshoring, or increased holding of strategic inventory. Supply chain teams should monitor negotiation progress as a leading indicator for 2024-2025 procurement budgets and supplier relationship decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if new tariffs increase costs by 12% on key product categories?

Simulate a scenario where U.S. tariffs on electronics and consumer goods imported from China increase from current rates to an effective 12% average, taking effect within 90 days. Model the impact on landed costs, supplier profitability, and pricing strategy for retail and electronics manufacturers.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if tariff uncertainty delays sourcing commitments by 8 weeks?

Simulate a delay in supply chain decision-making where companies postpone long-term purchase orders and supplier contracts by 8 weeks pending tariff clarity. Model the impact on inventory levels, lead times, and service level targets as buyers hold cash and defer commitments.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if deal breakthrough triggers 15% cost reduction on China imports?

Simulate a positive negotiation outcome where tariff suspensions or rate reductions drive a 15% reduction in effective landed costs on Chinese imports. Model the impact on supplier margins, repricing opportunities, and competitive positioning for companies that can quickly pass through cost savings.

Run this scenario

Get the daily supply chain briefing

Top stories, Pulse score, and disruption alerts. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

The signal

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Related Articles