US Rail Traffic Gains 3.5% YoY, Led by Intermodal Growth

U.S. rail traffic demonstrated robust momentum in the week ending October 31, rising 3.5% year-over-year, with intermodal volume outpacing traditional carload growth at 3.9% versus 3.0%. This performance extends a positive year-to-date trajectory, with total rail traffic up 3.8% through the first 43 weeks of 2026, indicating sustained demand across most commodity categories.

The data reveals a bifurcated freight landscape: commodities tied to manufacturing recovery and infrastructure spending, particularly metallic ores and metals (up 18.3%), forest products (up 9.3%), and motor vehicles (up 9.1%), are driving volume gains. Conversely, grain traffic dropped 8.3% despite being the strongest year-to-date category, while coal continues its structural decline, down 1.6% year-to-date.

For supply chain professionals, this trend underscores the growing importance of intermodal capacity planning and the need to monitor commodity-specific volatility. The strength in metals and manufacturing-related freight suggests industrial activity remains resilient, though the weakness in coal and grain volatility warrant attention to demand forecasting assumptions and modal shift strategies.