US Shifts China Trade Focus to Supply Chain Restructuring

What if 30% of your China supply base transitions to Mexico and Vietnam over 24 months?

Simulate the impact of gradually shifting sourcing from China to Mexico (nearshoring) and Vietnam (friendshoring) over a 24-month window. Model transit time changes (ocean freight from China 35-45 days vs. Mexico 10-14 days, Vietnam 25-30 days), transportation cost differentials, and supplier reliability/capacity constraints in new regions. Assess inventory policy adjustments needed to accommodate shorter lead times from nearshore suppliers and identify working capital and service level impacts.

What if nearshore/friendshore sourcing costs 8-12% more than current China pricing?

Simulate total cost of ownership impact as companies shift to higher-cost sourcing regions (nearshore premium of 5-10%, friendshore premium of 8-12%). Model the effect on gross margins, pricing power vs. competitors, inventory carrying costs (offset by shorter lead times), and landed costs. Assess whether operational savings from reduced lead times, lower safety stock, or improved supply continuity offset the higher unit procurement costs. Identify products where cost premium is sustainable vs. requiring price increases or value engineering.

What if average transit times from suppliers increase 15-20% as supply chains rebalance?

Model the scenario where supply chain restructuring creates temporary supplier capacity constraints and longer lead times as production shifts to nearshore/friendshore alternatives. Simulate a 15-20% increase in end-to-end lead times across affected supplier base during the transition phase. Assess impact on forecast accuracy, safety stock requirements, order-to-delivery cycles, and customer service levels. Identify which product categories or SKUs are most sensitive to lead time extension.