63% of Asia-Europe Capacity Returns to Suez Canal

After three years of circumnavigating Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, approximately 63 percent of container capacity on Far East-Europe routes has returned to the Suez Canal, signaling a significant operational shift driven by both geopolitical stabilization and economic incentives. The return is not uniform: major carriers like CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and Cosco/OOCL have resumed Suez transits, collectively representing millions of TEU, but notable holdouts like Evergreen and Zim remain cautious or absent from Red Sea operations.

The rebalancing reflects two competing forces: carriers seeking fuel savings at a time when bunker prices remain elevated (VLSFO at $881/tonne, up 97 percent year-on-year) and lingering risk concerns that keep some operators maintaining alternative Cape routes as contingency options. This creates a bifurcated market where operators hedge their bets, using Suez on outbound European routes while diverting returns through the Cape, effectively treating the Red Sea as one-way capacity rather than a fully restored conduit.

For supply chain professionals, this marks a critical juncture where transit time optimization, fuel cost management, and geopolitical risk assessment must be recalibrated in real time. The gradual restoration of Suez capacity should lower average transit times and bunker costs for Asia-Europe shipments, but the uneven carrier adoption and continued Cape alternatives suggest supply chain teams should maintain scenario-planning flexibility.