AI Boom May Strain Air Freight Under Worst-Case Scenarios

Expeditors' consulting division Onyx has released scenario analysis examining how the ongoing AI investment boom could reshape freight markets and supply chains. Chief economist Adam Karson highlighted that air freight faces the most severe downside risk under worst-case demand scenarios, aligning with earlier observations from DHL Group about emerging "smart industrial growth" patterns.

The analysis suggests that rapid AI infrastructure buildout, driven by data center expansion, semiconductor production, and related manufacturing, could create unprecedented demand spikes for air cargo capacity. This scenario planning matters because supply chain professionals must prepare for potential capacity shortages, rate volatility, and service-level impacts across time-sensitive logistics networks.

The advisory underscores the need for proactive demand planning and carrier relationship strategies. Organizations relying on air freight for just-in-time operations, perishables, or time-critical tech components should stress-test their logistics networks and explore diversification into ocean freight lanes or regional redistribution hubs to mitigate concentration risk.