Ceasefire Fails to Ease Supply Chain Strain in Middle East

What if Strait of Hormuz shipping delays extend another 8 weeks?

Simulate an extension of transit time delays affecting all shipments routed through the Strait of Hormuz by an additional 8 weeks beyond current baselines. Model the impact on inventory carrying costs, service level targets for downstream customers, and forced expedited air freight decisions for time-sensitive commodities.

What if risk premiums on Middle East shipping remain at 15-20% for 6 months?

Model sustained elevated freight costs due to insurance premiums, congestion surcharges, and carrier risk pricing remaining at 15-20% above pre-crisis levels for a 6-month period. Calculate the cumulative cost impact on landed goods costs, gross margin compression across affected industries, and the financial trigger point for permanent sourcing diversification.

What if alternative routing via longer ocean routes becomes permanent for 20% of shipments?

Simulate a scenario where 20% of cargo destined for Middle East/Indian Ocean ports permanently shifts to longer alternate routes (e.g., around Africa or via Central Asia). Model the impact on lead times, inventory positioning, warehouse capacity in secondary ports, and the feasibility of maintaining JIT supply chains.