FedEx and UPS Q4 Prices Hit Record Highs with Peak Surcharges

Oct 16, 2026

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The signal

FedEx and UPS are anticipated to charge record-high delivery prices in the fourth quarter, according to analysis by TD Cowen and AFS.

While the third quarter provided some relief through lower fuel prices and increased discounting activity, the approaching peak holiday season will reverse these gains through elevated surcharges.

This development has significant implications for shippers managing year-end logistics and budget planning.

Companies affected by this story:

UPS

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FedEx

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Dematic

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What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if peak season surcharges increase shipping costs by 15-20% in Q4?

Model the impact of record-high FedEx and UPS surcharges in Q4 on total transportation spend, considering typical peak season volume increases and current contract terms with major carriers.

Run this scenario

Go deeper:

Supply Chain Simulation: How It Works and How to Choose Software

What discrete-event, agent-based, and Monte Carlo simulation actually do, how to evaluate simulation software, and what it costs.

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