Why are flatbed volumes at their highest levels since 2008, even surpassing the COVID surge?

According to Sean Dehan, Truckstop's COO and Chief Strategy Officer, the surge is being driven by data center construction and broader AI infrastructure investment. These sectors require specialized flatbed capacity to transport equipment, creating structural demand that has pushed volumes to unprecedented levels relative to recent history.

What is the cumulative impact of rising insurance and fuel costs on carrier margins?

Carriers face a compounding cost environment: insurance premiums have risen 10–20% annually for four to five consecutive years, and diesel prices have reached record levels, including a first-ever $10-per-gallon reading in California. While spot carriers have some natural buffer due to faster rate adjustment, prolonged fuel increases erode margins, particularly on unfamiliar lanes. When combined with rates that have only recently climbed back to inflation-adjusted baselines, carriers are operating with structurally lower real margins.

What are the Montgomery and Lupus legal decisions, and why do they matter for brokers?

These court rulings have raised new questions about broker liability and whether carrier drivers can be considered borrowed employees of brokers. The Lupus decision specifically questioned whether using a C.H. Robinson app could constitute operational control over a driver. These rulings are exposing brokers to potential claims and forcing them to demand more carrier safety data, while simultaneously creating compliance risk. Larger brokers with compliance infrastructure view this as a competitive advantage, but even standard practices like requiring tracking could now expose firms to liability claims.

Should shippers consider modal shifts like intermodal to avoid proposed 10–15% rate increases?

While some shippers facing 10–15% linehaul rate increases are exploring intermodal alternatives, Dehan cautioned that drayage capacity is already tight. Even if intermodal doubled its market share, it would remain a small fraction of total truckload volume. Shippers should factor in drayage bottlenecks and overall capacity constraints when evaluating modal alternatives.

What is Truckstop's response to the new broker liability environment?

Truckstop is developing tools that enable carriers to proactively share their own safety data and internal compliance processes with brokers, rather than relying on one-sided surveillance or tracking models. This collaborative approach shifts the vetting model away from practices that could be construed as operational control, reducing broker exposure to liability claims while allowing carriers to differentiate themselves through transparency.

Shipping & Freight

High Impact

Flatbed Freight Surges 20% YoY as Carriers Face Margin Squeeze

Sep 23, 2026

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The signal

Truckstop's latest market intelligence reveals a bifurcated freight environment where flatbed capacity is tightening dramatically—posting its strongest year-over-year gains since 2008 and exceeding COVID-era peaks—while traditional van and reefer segments face softer demand. The surge is being driven by data center construction and AI infrastructure investment, signaling structural shifts in shipper demand patterns. Simultaneously, carriers are experiencing sustained margin compression from multiple vectors: insurance premiums have climbed 10–20% annually for four to five consecutive years, diesel prices have hit record levels (including a historic $10-per-gallon in California), and rates have only recently returned to inflation-adjusted baselines after years of running below historical norms. Beyond demand and cost dynamics, the freight industry faces an emerging compliance and legal landscape that is reshaping broker-carrier relationships.

The Montgomery and Lupus legal decisions have introduced new ambiguity around broker liability and independent contractor status, compelling brokers to demand more extensive carrier safety data while simultaneously exposing them to claims of operational control. This is driving a fundamental shift in how market participants approach vetting and collaboration, with larger compliance-ready brokers potentially gaining competitive advantage. Truckstop and peers are responding by building tools that enable carriers to proactively share safety and compliance data, transforming the relationship from surveillance-based to collaborative. For supply chain professionals, this moment requires strategic attention to three domains: segment-specific capacity planning (flatbed versus traditional truckload), ongoing cost volatility and insurance management, and regulatory compliance positioning.

Carriers and brokers operating in tight margins or unfamiliar lanes face accelerated pressure to optimize fuel efficiency, route planning, and insurance positioning. Shippers exploring modal alternatives—such as intermodal—should factor in the reality that drayage capacity is also constrained, potentially offsetting theoretical cost savings.

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if flatbed capacity remains constrained for 12+ months due to sustained AI infrastructure investment?

Model a scenario where flatbed freight demand remains 20%+ above year-ago baseline through 2024–2025 due to ongoing data center buildouts. Assume flatbed capacity tightens further as carriers remain deployed on high-margin lanes. Simulate the impact on mixed-fleet carriers who must allocate increasingly scarce equipment to competing shippers, and model secondary effects on van and reefer modal economics as carriers shift capacity allocation.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if diesel prices remain at $4.00+ per gallon through Q4 and insurance costs continue rising 15% annually?

Simulate the cumulative margin impact on small and mid-sized carriers if diesel stays elevated ($3.80–$4.20/gal) and insurance premiums continue their 10–20% annual climb. Model break-even analysis for spot carriers versus contract carriers, and calculate how many months of unfavorable rate-to-cost ratios could trigger carrier exits from marginal lanes or market segments.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if broker liability claims from Montgomery/Lupus decisions force mid-market brokers to exit or consolidate?

Model a scenario where regulatory compliance costs and legal exposure force smaller and mid-market brokers to either consolidate with larger competitors or exit the market. Simulate the capacity redistribution across remaining brokers, the impact on carrier access to diverse shipper demand, and how reduced broker diversity affects pricing power and service options for shippers.

Run this scenario

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