Freight Market Softens: Tender Rejections Stall at 13.5% Amid Intermodal Shift

The U.S. truckload market is displaying conflicting signals as tender rejection rates remain stubbornly elevated at 13.5%, more than double the balanced-market baseline of 5–7%, while underlying demand erosion accelerates beyond normal seasonal patterns. A structural modal shift is underway, with domestic intermodal container volumes rising 8% year-over-year compared to just 2% for long-haul truckload, indicating shippers are routing freight through rail and less capacity-constrained alternatives. Paradoxically, short-haul freight (under 100 miles) continues to outperform at 4% growth, suggesting the weakness is concentrated in long-distance lanes most vulnerable to intermodal competition. Spot rate behavior is increasingly bifurcated by mode and region.

Dry van rates, the most exposed to intermodal substitution, are declining nationwide, while refrigerated rates are surprisingly resilient and moving higher, particularly in Midwestern protein and grain corridors where early-season spikes suggest harvest dynamics may be arriving ahead of historical schedule. Flatbed remains the strongest performer, supported by sustained AI data center infrastructure investment, though even this mode is beginning to soften at the margins. These divergences signal that aggregate market indicators alone may mask critical opportunities and vulnerabilities in specific lanes and commodities. For supply chain teams, this environment demands granular lane-level and mode-specific analysis rather than broad market calls.

Shippers with flexibility may exploit softening dry van rates in the near term, but carriers and 3PLs should prepare for further structural pressure as intermodal captures additional share. The Midwest reefer market warrants close monitoring as an early indicator of seasonal commodity dynamics and regional capacity tightness, with implications for cold-chain logistics through Q3 and Q4.