Van Freight Capacity Tightens: Rejections Hit 14% as Market Fragility Persists

S. van freight market is experiencing pronounced capacity tightness unrelated to demand growth, with national tender rejection rates holding near 14%—a level not seen since Labor Day. This development carries outsized systemic weight because van moves represent 60-70% of all freight tendered nationally.

Supply chain teams should note that this compression stems from market fragility and carrier selectivity rather than a surge in customer orders; total tender volumes remain below April baseline levels. The Midwest corridor, particularly Joliet, Columbus, and the Northeast ports of Allentown and Elizabeth, are geographic epicenters of rejection-rate stickiness, signaling localized supply imbalances that are allowing carriers to maintain pricing leverage. Refrigerated and flatbed modes are also under pressure (20% and 19% rejection rates respectively), but their smaller volume share limits systemic impact.

The timing complicates forecasting: quarter-end seasonal freight push is arriving earlier and more intensely than historical patterns would predict, creating operational uncertainty through October. For shippers, this environment means higher spot market costs, tighter capacity access, and reduced carrier flexibility, particularly for van-dependent supply chains.