Intermodal Hits Records as Truckload Rejection Rates Stay Elevated

Domestic intermodal volumes have reached unprecedented levels, posting 8% year-over-year growth while truckload tender rejection rates stubbornly remain near 14% heading into Q4, a period historically characterized by softer freight demand. This bifurcation reveals a significant modal shift where shippers are actively moving freight from trucking to rail, rather than a broad economic slowdown. Industry analysts caution that this growth trajectory may not be sustainable given rail infrastructure constraints and the difficulty in managing volume surges of this magnitude.

The truckload market continues to face headwinds despite seasonal softness, with rising diesel costs inflating spot rates across dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed segments while compressing margins for smaller carriers with heavy spot-market exposure. Refrigerated freight remains particularly resilient due to active harvest season demand extending through January. Supply chain professionals need to recognize that this modal shift represents both opportunity and risk: while rail can absorb volumes that truckload cannot, any disruption to rail service could create critical choke points for domestic freight flows.

The key implication for operations teams is that capacity tightness persists, but it is now segmented by mode rather than uniform across trucking. Decision makers must monitor whether this 8% intermodal growth rate can continue without infrastructure investment and whether fuel cost pressures will stabilize or continue eroding carrier profitability across all modes.