Iran Conflict Sends Supply Chain Shocks Through Global Markets

What if Strait of Hormuz transit routes are disrupted for 8 weeks?

Simulate a scenario where direct ocean freight routing through the Strait of Hormuz is temporarily unavailable, forcing all traffic to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds approximately 10-12 days to Asia-Europe and Middle East-North America transit times. Apply this routing change to all affected lanes and measure impact on lead times, inventory positioning, and total landed cost.

What if war-risk insurance premiums increase 2.5% on Hormuz-adjacent routes?

Model a scenario where insurance surcharges on Middle East and Persian Gulf maritime shipments increase by 2.5% of shipment value due to elevated geopolitical risk. Apply this cost increase across all ocean freight lines passing through or originating from the region. Recalculate landed costs and identify which suppliers or sourcing decisions become uneconomical.

What if crude oil prices spike 15% and stay elevated for 6 months?

Simulate a scenario where geopolitical escalation drives crude oil prices up 15% and the elevated price persists for 6 months. Model the downstream cost impact on fuel surcharges, chemical feedstock pricing, and energy-intensive manufacturing. Evaluate hedging strategies and procurement contract adjustments needed to manage margin erosion.