Maersk Alerts East African Exporters to El Niño Shipping Risks

Maersk has issued a formal warning to East African agricultural exporters regarding anticipated disruptions from El Niño weather patterns between October and December 2026. The shipping line highlighted that above-average rainfall across 80 percent of Kenya, including the critical Port of Mombasa, could significantly impact container availability, port access, and transit times during peak export seasons for pulses, avocados, and mangoes. This advisory comes as the Port of Mombasa experienced 10.9 percent cargo growth in 2025 (45.45 million tons), underscoring both the region's growing trade importance and its vulnerability to infrastructure disruption.

The warning represents a critical operational challenge for exporters who must balance increased seasonal demand for container capacity with the risk of weather-related delays. Maersk's recommendations to book early, maintain buffer time, and confirm customs documentation are standard risk mitigation tactics, but they underscore the structural vulnerability of East African logistics infrastructure to climate volatility. Supply chain teams managing perishable agricultural exports face dual pressures: securing containers during peak demand while accounting for potentially extended transit windows and inland distribution bottlenecks.

For logistics professionals, this advisory signals the importance of building climate resilience into seasonal planning cycles. Organizations should reassess their inventory buffers, alternate routing options, and supplier communication protocols now rather than waiting for actual disruptions to occur. The combination of growing cargo volumes at Mombasa and known weather risks creates a high-impact planning scenario that merits scenario analysis and contingency protocol updates.