Why aren't shippers automatically switching to airfreight when ocean freight is disrupted?

According to DSV head of global airfreight Achim Martinka, airfreight can cost up to 20 times more than ocean freight. Most shippers consider two to three-week delays normal and cannot justify the financial premium unless business impact is severe. The cost-benefit calculation rarely favors air unless delays threaten critical operations.

Is dedicated airfreight capacity readily available during disruption periods?

No. Atlas Air reports it has a pipeline of business for tens of aircraft that it cannot currently accommodate. Most airline capacity is locked into lengthy contracts signed 6-12 months in advance. Spot bookings and ad hoc requests face significantly higher rates because forwarders and shippers increasingly prefer long-term dedicated capacity to ensure availability.

What operational barriers prevent easy sea-air modal shifts?

The article describes multiple obstacles: documentation requirements, dangerous goods certifications, aircraft dimension compatibility checks, cargo rebuilding for flight, and cold chain maintenance. A sea-air trial of Honduran okra required USDA permits, careful timing windows (two days to move from ship to airport), and the ability to find consistent freighter capacity on specific days. Scaling even one successful route proved difficult due to capacity consistency requirements.

How are airlines adapting their capacity allocation during disruptions?

Airlines with ACMI (Air Charter, Maintenance and Insurance) capacity, like DSV, can adjust flight destinations daily based on customer needs. This flexibility allows them to redirect flights to meet demand shifts caused by ocean disruptions. However, most carriers rely on fixed contracts that provide less adaptability.

Are shippers building sea-air contingency plans into their resilience strategies?

Most shippers have developed emergency plans since Covid, but Martinka noted this does not translate to regular volume shifts. Sea-air routes are viewed as contingency backups that need periodic testing rather than as primary alternatives to ocean freight during normal disruption scenarios.

Shipping & Freight

Moderate

Ocean Disruption Fails to Drive Airfreight Switch Due to Cost

Nov 2, 2026

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The signal

Ocean shipping disruptions are not translating into the expected surge in airfreight demand, according to DSV leadership speaking at TIACA's Air Cargo Forum. While delays of two to three weeks have become normalized, the cost premium of airfreight (up to 20 times more expensive) creates a prohibitive barrier for most shippers. Conversion volumes remain limited as shippers struggle to justify the financial case for modal switching. Capacity constraints further complicate the picture.

Atlas Air reports a pipeline of demand for dedicated aircraft that it cannot currently accommodate, with most airlines operating under lengthy fixed-term contracts that leave little room for ad hoc spot bookings. Shippers waiting too long to arrange alternatives face prohibitively expensive rates for remaining capacity. Operational and regulatory complexities add another layer of friction. Documentation requirements, dangerous goods verification, aircraft dimension compatibility, and cold chain maintenance create significant barriers to sea-air intermodal movements.

A case study involving Honduran okra shipments to the UK illustrates how even a successful one-off sea-air move cannot easily scale due to capacity consistency requirements and customer expectations. These structural challenges mean disruptions are not automatically driving a permanent shift in modal preferences.

#ocean-disruption

#airfreight-capacity

#modal-shift

#supply-chain-resilience

#freight-costs

#capacity-constraints

#perishables-logistics

#intermodal-solutions

#freight-forwarding

#logistics-costs

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if ocean transit delays extend beyond 4 weeks at a 30% cost increase?

Model a scenario where key ocean lanes experience persistent 4-week delays and freight rates increase 30% due to congestion, forcing shippers to evaluate modal alternatives. Compare total landed costs across ocean-only, airfreight, and sea-air intermodal routes for high-value perishables and time-sensitive goods.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if airfreight capacity tightens 15% while ocean disruptions persist 8 weeks?

Simulate the impact of reduced available airfreight capacity (15% contraction) occurring simultaneously with an 8-week ocean disruption. Model how spot rate escalation, dedicated contract prioritization, and capacity allocation affect service levels for mid-tier shippers without long-term air contracts.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if perishable cold chain integrity requires sea-air intermodal for 60-tonne weekly volumes?

Model the feasibility and cost of scaling a sea-air intermodal route for temperature-sensitive cargo (e.g., Central American produce to Europe) at 60-tonne minimum volumes per week. Factor in USDA/regulatory delays, capacity consistency requirements on both modes, and total logistics cost versus air-only or ocean-only alternatives.

Run this scenario

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Supply Chain Simulation: How It Works and How to Choose Software

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