Peak spending jumps 43% as free shipping strains supply chains

Kenco's 2026 Peak Season Consumer Report reveals a significant shift in North American consumer behavior, with 43% of shoppers planning to increase peak season spending, more than double the 20% from 2025. This surge in consumer demand is accompanied by elevated service expectations: 73% consider free shipping standard, 48% expect two-day delivery, 47% expect free returns, and 40% demand real-time tracking. These expectations create structural cost pressures throughout the supply chain, particularly for third-party logistics providers who must absorb expenses previously borne by consumers or retailers. The data suggests a K-shaped economic recovery where affluent consumers spend more while price sensitivity drives overall volume increases.

Import tariffs concern 45% of respondents, indicating that portion of the spending surge may reflect anticipated price increases rather than pure demand growth. With 80% of surveyed consumers reporting that inaccurate inventory hurts retailer trust, supply chain accuracy has become a competitive differentiator. Most holiday merchandise has already arrived in North America, with August 2026 representing the busiest import month, suggesting fulfillment infrastructure must now optimize for velocity and accuracy rather than capacity expansion. Kenco's response strategy, highlighted by investments in flexible automation like AutoStore's goods-to-person systems and AI-driven order grouping, illustrates how logistics providers are adapting to margin compression.

By positioning inventory closer to population centers and deploying scalable robotics, 3PLs can manage peak capacity without carrying excess infrastructure year-round. However, the rising expectation for free returns creates operational challenges: consumers ordering multiple items for comparison and returning unwanted goods now represent a structural cost. Retailers increasingly charge return fees and direct consumers to drop-off points at retail locations, but 32% of consumers report abandoning retailers after encountering hidden fees, creating a delicate balance between cost recovery and customer retention.