Tariff Relief Reshapes Logistics Economics but Not Supply Chain Structure

What if US-China tariffs increase by 15 percent within the next 12 months?

Simulate the financial and operational impact of a 15 percent increase in tariffs on imports from China, affecting cost of goods sold, landed costs, and freight optimization strategies. Model the effect on sourcing decisions, inventory positioning, and the case for alternative suppliers in Vietnam, India, and Mexico. Calculate the break-even point at which nearshoring becomes cost-optimal versus China sourcing.

What if you maintained diversified suppliers across China, Vietnam, and Mexico simultaneously?

Model the cost and service level implications of maintaining active supplier relationships across three geographic regions rather than consolidating on China due to tariff relief. Compare multi-source inventory carrying costs, lead time variability, and procurement complexity against the resilience benefit and tariff risk mitigation. Calculate the cost of maintaining supplier redundancy relative to potential tariff shock costs.

What if transportation costs remain elevated despite tariff relief?

Model supply chain performance under a scenario where tariff relief is realized but ocean freight rates remain 20 percent above pre-pandemic levels. Analyze the combined impact on total landed cost, the speed of nearshoring adoption, and the economic case for air freight versus ocean freight for time-sensitive goods. Evaluate inventory positioning and demand planning strategies under this constrained cost environment.