How does SONAR's Contract Rate Change Direction Index differ from spot rates?

The CRCD.USA measures only contracts that are actively changing after holding steady for more than 90 days, filtering out temporary noise and route guide waterfalling. This shows true bid-cycle repricing and excludes volatile spot market pricing or short-term contract-plus arrangements, providing a clearer picture of sustained cost increases that shippers will actually experience.

Why are contract rates increasing faster than capacity growth would suggest?

According to the article, tender rejection rates jumped above 9% nearly a year ago and remain near 13%. These rejections create persistent pressure on carriers to raise rates when contracts reset. Additionally, FMCSA data shows capacity has not grown meaningfully despite these elevated rates, meaning the supply-demand imbalance persists and supports carriers' pricing power.

What does the 13% contract increase mean for annual budgeting?

The 13% reading represents the average increase when contracts reset, not an annualized rate. However, the takeaway is that carriers are securing strong increases and these are sticking. Shippers should expect these increases to compound through their contract portfolio as older contracts renew, with moderation likely only after carriers move through less financially healthy contracts and capacity normalizes.

Is this rate environment temporary or structural?

The article suggests this is more structural than temporary. Both FMCSA and tender data show capacity has not grown meaningfully despite the elevated rates for over 12 months. The pairing of increasing CRCD values with persistent high tender rejection rates indicates sustained market pressure, suggesting the curve may take considerable time to flatten.

Why does CRCD lead invoice data, and what does that mean for shippers?

CRCD measures contract rate changes at the moment they are negotiated, while invoiced rates (VCRPM1) reflect what actually moves through carrier billing systems. Contract rates are leading indicators, but do not predict whether increases will stick. Currently, both metrics are moving in the same direction, confirming that the 13% contract increases are translating into real cost impacts for shippers.

Procurement

High Impact

Truckload Rates Stay Above 10%: What Shippers Need to Know

Oct 25, 2026

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The signal

Truckload contract rates are increasing by approximately 13% when contracts reset, representing a significant jump from 3.53% a year earlier, according to FreightWaves' new Contract Rate Change Direction Index (CRCD.USA). This metric specifically measures the average difference between new contract base rates and the ones they replace within established shipper-carrier relationships, filtering out temporary pricing noise to show true cost changes.

The sustained double-digit increases indicate that carriers have successfully translated persistent market pressure (evidenced by tender rejection rates near 13%) into durable price improvements. For shippers, this represents a structural cost challenge rather than a temporary spike, as SONAR's contract rate index (VCRPM1) confirms that these increases are sticking and translating into higher invoiced rates.

The data suggests that despite the elevated pricing, capacity has not grown meaningfully over the past year, meaning the cost environment may persist longer than typical market cycles would suggest.

#truckload-rates

#contract-pricing

#freight-costs

#capacity-constraints

#supply-chain-inflation

#tender-rejection

#carrier-pricing-power

#procurement-strategy

#cost-management

#market-pressure

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if tender rejection rates remain elevated at 12-14% through Q1 2027?

Model the scenario where carrier tender rejection rates persist near current levels (12-14%) for the next six months. Assume this continued market tightness drives another 5-8% in contract rate increases at the next renewal cycle, and simulate the cumulative cost impact on a typical shipper's truckload network across multiple renewal dates.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if capacity growth accelerates and rejection rates drop to below 8%?

Model the alternative scenario where trucking capacity increases by 5-7% over the next 12 months, reducing tender rejection rates from 13% to 7-8%. Simulate how this capacity relief would impact contract rate negotiations at the next renewal cycle, assuming CRCD values moderate to 5-7% increases rather than current double-digit levels.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if your shipper routing guide drops to carrier mid-tier after rate negotiations?

Model the scenario where aggressive rate negotiations cause a key carrier to move down in your routing guide from preferred tier to secondary tier. Simulate the service level and cost impacts: assess whether secondary carriers absorb the volume, whether service metrics (on-time percentage, damage rates) degrade, and model the total cost of service including potential expedited shipments or operational delays.

Run this scenario

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