Ecommerce Boom Fails to Fix Latin America Air Cargo Imbalance

While ecommerce volumes into Latin America have surged significantly, the region's structural air cargo imbalance remains unresolved. LATAM Cargo and Avianca Cargo report that declining industrial shipments (auto parts, mining equipment) offset ecommerce gains, forcing carriers to rebalance networks across multiple destinations rather than simply filling return legs on individual routes. The situation is further complicated by currency appreciation and wage increases in Colombia that have raised exporter labor costs by 40 to 45 percent in dollar terms, pressuring shippers when carriers attempt to raise pricing.

The redirection of Chinese ecommerce shipments away from the US (following removal of de minimis treatment) created new market opportunities in Peru and elsewhere, but left carriers scrambling when US demand recovered. This highlights a critical challenge: aircraft committed to Latin America were unavailable to meet renewed US demand, revealing the fragility of assuming today's cargo flows will remain constant. Miami's role as a connecting gateway has intensified, with transhipments and indirect capacity serving Asia-Latin America demand.

For supply chain professionals, the key takeaway is that structural imbalances driven by commodity mix shifts require network-level thinking rather than route-level optimization. Carriers must maintain operational flexibility to adapt quickly to changing demand patterns, particularly in higher-margin but cyclical sectors like pharmaceuticals. Cost pressures on regional exporters will likely intensify competition among carriers, demanding creative commercial solutions beyond straightforward price increases.