Freight Markets Show Persistence: Tender Rejections Spike Above 14.5%

The U.S. freight market continues to operate under significant capacity constraints despite stable demand, with tender rejection rates surging to 14.5% in the week leading up to Labor Day, the sharpest holiday spike since 2021. This tightening reflects not a demand surge but rather the market's underlying inflexibility: spot rates climbed to $344 (up 2% month-over-month) and contract rates remain approximately 20% above year-ago levels, signaling that carriers maintain pricing power even without broad volume growth. Intermodal operations have absorbed some truckload pressure, with domestic container volumes running 20% above year-over-year and inbound ocean bookings 10% above spring levels, creating a modal shift that masks the true state of freight demand. For supply chain professionals, this volatility presents both a tactical challenge and a strategic question.

Near-term (through mid-September), capacity will likely remain under pressure as shippers ramp operations post-holiday, but the market has not demonstrated structural tightening, instead, it appears vulnerable to any demand spike. The distinction matters: if the current volatility is seasonal and modal-driven rather than demand-driven, then the market could normalize quickly once peak import season fully fades. Conversely, any unexpected surge in consumer demand or supply chain disruption would immediately tilt capacity further in carriers' favor, making shipper negotiations even more difficult. The key takeaway is that freight markets remain unbalanced and primed for disruption.

Shippers should monitor tender rejection trends closely through mid-September to gauge whether a true demand peak is forming or whether conditions stabilize as anticipated. Contract rate locks are justified given the 20% year-over-year premium, and capacity buffers in logistics planning are critical.