U.S. Extends China Port Fee Suspension Through January

What if China-linked vessel fees are reinstated at previously estimated annual rates?

Simulate a scenario where port fees on Chinese-owned and Chinese-operated vessels calling at U.S. ports are reinstated after the proposed January 9 expiration. Model the impact on carrier operating costs assuming COSCO's estimated annual exposure of $1.5 billion is distributed across the shipping industry, and analyze the cascading effects on freight rates, route optimization, and U.S. port utilization. Consider whether carriers would shift capacity to Asian or European routes.

What if China does not extend its own suspension of retaliatory fees on U.S.-linked vessels?

Model a scenario where the U.S. extends its port fee suspension but China lets its reciprocal suspension expire. This would create an asymmetric cost environment where U.S. carriers operating in Chinese ports face charges while Chinese carriers enjoy relief in U.S. ports. Analyze the impact on route profitability, carrier competitive positioning, and U.S. import/export competitiveness. Consider effects on major carriers like Matson that operate transpacific routes.

What if the broader Maritime Action Plan port fees go into effect alongside China-specific measures?

Model a dual-fee scenario where both China-specific charges and the administration's broader Maritime Action Plan fees are active simultaneously. The broader plan proposes 1 to 25 cents per kilogram on foreign-built vessels, potentially generating $1.5 trillion over 10 years. Simulate the combined cost impact on inbound and outbound cargo flows at major U.S. East Coast and West Coast ports, and evaluate potential shifts in sourcing, carrier selection, and inventory positioning.